OSCARS PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

Since I've seen all the nominated films this year, I usually give my thoughts on who I think SHOULD win and who I think WILL win the Oscars in all of the major categories.  However, this year - in every category - my predicted winner is also the nominee that I think SHOULD win.

BEST DIRECTOR - A 3 horse race, the most unpredictable race of all of these.

5).  Todd Phillips, THE JOKER - Joaquin Phoenix' performance is phenomenal, the rest of this film is "meh".

4).  Martin Scorcese, THE IRISHMAN - Been there, done that - and better - for Scorcese

Anyone of these 3 could win, making this race one of the toughest to call

3).  Sam Mendes, 1917 - Pulls off quite the trick, making his film look like one long take.

2).  Quentin Tarantino, ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD - A well made pastiche to Hollywood could earn Tarantino the statue.

1).  Bong Joon-Ho, PARASITE - The surprise film of the Awards season and this will earn him a deserving BEST DIRECTOR Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Probably the weakest group of nominees

5).  Margot Robbie, BOMBSHELL - Not even the Best Supporting Actress in this film (that would be Nicole Kidman)

4).  Kathy Bates, RICHARD JEWELL - Not a bad performance (I don't think she can give a bad performance), just not anything special

3).  Scarlett Johannsen, JOJO RABBIT - I loved this movie and this performance, there just wasn't enough there to earn the statue.

2).  Florence Pugh, LITTLE WOMEN - Did the impossible, made the spoiled brat character of AMY actually likable.  Could pull off the upset.

1).  Laura Dern, MARRIAGE STORY - Has everything that earns an Oscar statue...well liked in the Industry, a good body of work (especially this year), and a strong supporting turn in an Indie film that is universally loved.  She WILL and SHOULD win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - always a category with many deserving performances

5).  Al Pacino, THE IRISHMAN - but this isn't one of them.  I found that Pacino was at his "shouty" worse as Jimmy Hoffa, reminded me of his Oscar winning turn in SCENT OF A WOMAN (a performance I didn't like, either).

4).  Anthony Hopkins, THE TWO POPES - A strong performance, showing that Hopkins can still throw his fastball when he is interested.

3).  Joe Pesci, THE IRISHMAN - Good to have him back in the movies, and back in the Oscar race.  He just might pull the upset (but I don't think so).

2).  Tom Hanks, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD - In any other year, I would be rooting and betting on Hanks in this role as Fred Rogers.  He is very, very good.  But...

1).  Brad Pitt, ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD - This is Pitt's time in the spotlight and he is more than deserving as the Hollywood stuntman caught up with the Manson Family.  He SHOULD and WILL win the Oscar.

BEST ACTRESS - The strongest category top to bottom, any one of these 5 is deserving of the win, but one towers above the others.

5).  Cynthia Erivo, HARRIET - A good, strong performance in a not very good film.

4).  Charlize Theron, BOMBSHELL - She disappears in her role, if she hadn't already won an Oscar, I think she would have had a very good chance at winning.

3).  Scarlett Johannson, MARRIAGE STORY - Unfortunately, she'll go 0 for 2 in her nominations this year.

2).  Saoirse Ronan, LITTLE WOMEN - A very strong performance of a very strong character.  I could see her winning in any other year.

1).  Renee Zellwegger, JUDY - The best performance by an Actress in a leading role by a mile.  She SHOULD and WILL win the Oscar.  

BEST ACTOR - features the "lock of the night"

5).  Jonathan Pryce, THE TWO POPES - The nomination is the win for him.

4).  Antonio Banderas, PAIN AND GLORY - The finest performance of his career, still "only" the 4th best Lead Male performance this year.

3).  Leonardo DiCaprio, ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD - It's a strong performance, but I liked Pitt's more in that film.  Besides..he has already won.

2).  Adam Driver, MARRIAGE STORY - If this film were to win an Oscar, than I couldn't think of a better one than giving it to Driver.

1).  Joaquin Phoenix, JOKER - As I'm watching JOKER, I knew I was watching an Oscar winning performance - it is that good.  He SHOULD and WILL win the Oscar, bet the house on it.

BEST PICTURE - It's really a 3 film race

9).  MARRIAGE STORY - Good performances in a bland movie does not a BEST PICTURE film make.

8).  JOKER - I can't believe this film garnered the most Oscar nominations of all the films, it just isn't that good of a film.

7).  THE IRISHMAN - Overlong, indulgent and "been there, done that".  Still good, though.

6).  LITTLE WOMEN - A very good adaptation of the classic novel.  Gerwig should have been nominated for Best Director (but her and this film will have to settle for Gerwig winning Best Adapted Screenplay).

5).  JOJO RABBIT - Reminiscent of GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL, a whimsical and original piece that I liked very, very much.

4).  FORD v. FERRARI - I liked this film much more than most and I would be happy (surprised) if this wins.

ANY ONE OF THESE 3 COULD WIN

3).  PARASITE - A very realistic chance for a Foreign film to win - it's that good.

2).  ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD - I would be thrilled if a Tarantino film won Best Picture...and this one could.

1).  1917 - Sam Mendes "one shot" film is the World War I "Saving Private Ryan" and it SHOULD and WILL win the Best Picture Oscar

And you can take these predictions to the Bank (ofMarquis)