OSCAR PICKS & PREDICTIONS

With no clear frontrunner (like OPPENHEIMER last year) and a crop of films that are VERY good (but not great), this year’s Oscars race is a wide open affair and when the Oscar nominations were announced, there were 5 films that had a legit chance at winning the top prize.

But…WICKED is not getting the love it deserves as most folks are waiting for the 2nd part before deciding whether it is “Awards worthy” (kind of like when the 3rd LORD OF THE RINGS film swept the awards back in the early 2000’s).

It appeared that EMILIA PEREZ (13 nominations) and THE BRUTALIST (10 nominations) were going to compete against each other, but their odds fell after people actually saw these films.

So…it looks like this Oscar race is coming down to ANORA and CONCLAVE. So will it be that the younger voters bring in an Indy darling like Anora for the top prize or will the general consensus be - with no clear frontrunner - to fall back on a tried and true Oscar-bait film like CONCLAVE.

With that preamble in mind, here is the BANKOFMARQUIS Picks on who WILL win the Oscar and who SHOULD win the Oscar in all the Major categories.

BEST DIRECTOR:

With film being a Director’s medium, it is not unusual for the Best Director and Best Picture winners to come from the same picture - so a harbinger of what film will most likely win Best Picture is the winner of Best Director- BUT…the Director of CONCLAVE, Edward Berger, is NOT nominated in this category, so there goes that theory…

5). JACQUES AUDIARD, Emilia Perez : big swing…and a miss

4). BRADY CORBET, The Brutalist: kudos for sticking with his vision and his ENTIRE 3 1/2 film.

3). JAMES MANGOLD, A Complete Unknown: A solid, professional job

2). CORALIE FARGEAT, The Substance: The most BOLD Directorial statement of the year. It would be fun if Fargeat would win, but she won’t.

1). SEAN BAKER, Anora: A darling of the industry has also directed one of the most pleasant surprises and Baker SHOULD WIN and WILL WIN the Oscar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

One performance in this category towers over the others

5). ISABELLA ROSSELLINI, Conclave: Has the least amount of screen time of any of the performers nominated and does NOT really have her “Oscar Speech” in the film.

4). FELICITY JONES, The Brutalist: Helped make this overlong film somewhat watchable

3). MONICA BARBARO, A Complete Unknown: An uncanny imitation of Joan Baez helped elevate a plotless film.

2). ARIANA GRANDE, Wicked: One of the biggest film performance surprises of the year, it would be great if she won but (see above) she won’t win…for THIS film.

1). ZOE SALDANA, Emilia Perez: The best thing - by far - in Emilia Perez and the Best Female Supporting performance of the year - by far - and she WILL WIN and SHOULD WIN the Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The strongest category, top-to-bottom

5). YURA BORISOV, Anora: A critical darling, for some reason, that the BankofMarquis just doesn’t quite get.

4). EDWARD NORTON, A Complete Unknown: A strong performance by someone who should have won an Oscar a long time ago, too bad he was undermined by a thinly written script and character

3). GUY PEARCE, The Brutalist: Helped make this overlong film somewhat watchable

2). KEIRAN CULKIN, A Real Pain: Critics are falling all over themselves to praise Culkin’s performance (which should be nominated in the LEAD not SUPPORTING category), Culkin WILL WIN the Oscar because many are still remembering his memorable turn in the TV Show SUCCESSION as well as his turn here.

1). JEREMY STRONG, The Apprentice: Possibly because he is in a film about Donald Trump, Strong’s fantastic performance as Lawyer Roy Cohn (who Trump is THE APPRENTICE to) SHOULD WIN this Oscar by a landslide…but he won’t

BEST ACTRESS

The most wide-open of all the races, this one is (almost) anyone’s Oscar to lose…

5). KARLA SOFIA GASCON, Emilia Perez: The early frontrunner fell out of that position with incendiary tweets - and with people actually seeing the performance

4). DEMI MOORE, The Substance: The comeback of the year. Moore’s performance is fun, but on a second watch becomes thin. However, Hollywood cannot resist a comeback story and Moore WILL WIN the Oscar.

3). MIKEY MADISON, Anora: If Anora gets on a roll, then Madison could ride the wave to the Oscar.

2). FERNANDA TORRES, I’m Still Here: If my #1 choice isn’t going to win (and she won’t - see issues with Wicked above), then this would be the choice for Best Actress for the BANKOFMARQUIS.

1). CYNTHIA ERIVO, Wicked: It’s too bad that there is resistance to Wicked for Erivo gave the Best Leading performance by an Actress this year and SHOULD WIN the Oscar (but she won’t).

BEST ACTOR

Much like a comeback story, the Academy also cannot resist “anointing” a young performer - especially if there is no clear frontrunner - and that is what is going to happen this year.

5). SEBASTIAN STAN, The Apprentice: He has to be satisfied with the nomination.

4). ADRIAN BRODY, The Brutalist: Helped make this overlong film somewhat watchable.

3). COLMAN DOMINGO, Sing Sing: His 2nd Best Actor Nomination in 2 years, he’ll win one of these statues some year - but just not this year.

2). RALPH FIENNES, Conclave: If Conclave gets on a roll, then Fiennes could ride the wave to the Oscar.

1). TIMOTHEE CHALAMET, A Complete Unknown: A strong imitation of Dylan makes Chalamet the Actor that SHOULD WIN and WILL WIN the Oscar.

BEST PICTURE

It comes down to 2 films (as stated above). Here is how they all stack up:

10). THE BRUTALIST: The Emperor Has No Clothes (see the BankofMarquis Review to understand that statement)

9). EMILIA PEREZ: A swing…and a miss.

8). DUNE: PART TWO: A surprising addition to this list. Technically wonderful (and will win many of the technical awards) but NOT a Best Picture.

7). A COMPLETE UNKNOWN: Would be a better film if it had a better plot.

6). ANORA: A very pleasant film and one that is gaining steam, and just might win the Oscar, but the bet here is that it will fall short.

5). THE SUBSTANCE: A real contender for Best Picture - until the last 20 minutes of the film sunk any chance this film had of winning the top prize. But, hoo-boy, what a 20 minute ride.

4). I”M STILL HERE: Should win the International Film Oscar

3). THE NICKEL BOYS: The biggest (best) surprise of the Oscar viewing this year. Strong, poignant and emotional. It would be great if it would breakthrough and win…but it won’t.

2). CONCLAVE: Kind of like a “compromise” candidate at a political convention, the Academy will fall back on a “tried and true” film and this film WILL WIN the Oscar for Best Picture.

1). WICKED: This is the film that SHOULD WIN (but will not)

And you can take these predictions to the BANK (ofMarquis)